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ES — S&P 500 Futures

Overnight Action

ES futures opened Wednesday’s Globex session near Tuesday’s regular close of 6,606.00, then surged strongly through the Asian session. The contract rallied to an overnight high of 6,681.50 before pulling back slightly to trade near 6,659 — a gain of roughly 53 points (+0.81%) from the prior session close. The catalyst was unambiguous: late Tuesday evening, Bloomberg and the New York Times reported the United States — via Pakistan as an intermediary — delivered a formal 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran. The plan reportedly includes dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, ending support for regional proxy groups, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell as much as 7% toward $97/barrel on the news. Asia Pacific equities responded strongly — Japan’s Nikkei rose +2.87%, South Korea’s Kospi surged +3.1%, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained +1.85%. The risk to the bullish overnight move: Iran’s military spokesperson publicly rejected the plan on Wednesday morning, and the US is reportedly sending additional troops to the region. VIX has eased to 25.72 (from 26.95 Tuesday close), and the 10-yr yield has dropped to 4.33% — both supportive of today’s upside move. The overnight range of 6,634.75 to 6,681.50 represents a 47-point spread centered above Tuesday’s close.

3 Key Session Themes

1. 1. The Peace Plan: Catalyst or False Dawn?
   The 15-point US proposal to Iran is the single biggest market mover of the day. Iran publicly rejected it overnight, but China is urging Iran to negotiate and Pakistan is offering to host talks. Markets are trading optimism — but any new headline confirming Iran’s rejection or US military escalation can rapidly reverse the 50+ point overnight gain. This is a news-driven session: oil direction is the real-time signal for ES.
2. 2. Durable Goods at 7:30 AM CT — The Economic Reality Check
   Durable Goods Orders for February drop at 7:30 AM CT (8:30 AM ET). The prior reading was +3.1%. Core Durable Goods (ex-aircraft) was +0.1% previously. These numbers tell us whether US manufacturing is holding up or cracking under high energy costs. A weak print — especially core orders below flat — would undercut the geopolitical optimism and dampen the overnight ES rally.
3. 3. Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM CT — Sentiment Gauge
   Conference Board Consumer Confidence (March) is released at 10:00 AM CT (11:00 AM ET). Prior reading was 98.3. With gas at $3.98/gallon nationally (+34% since the Iran conflict began Feb 28), confidence is likely strained. A print below 95 would signal consumer stress and could give back some of ES’s morning gains. A surprise above 100 = another leg of the rally.

Key Risks

• ● Iran Publicly Rejects Peace Plan — Already Happened — Iran’s military spokesperson has already rejected the 15-point proposal publicly. The market is choosing to focus on the diplomatic process (China urging talks, Pakistan hosting), not the rejection itself. A second, louder rejection from the Supreme Leader or a new military action sends ES back to 6,606–6,620 immediately.
• ● Weak Core Durable Goods at 7:30 AM CT — Prior core reading +0.1%. A negative print or large headline miss signals manufacturing contraction under the weight of high energy costs. This undermines the ‘economy is resilient’ narrative and pulls ES back toward 6,620–6,634. Expect a 20–30 point initial spike reaction to a miss.
• ● Consumer Confidence Collapse Below 95 — Gas at $3.98/gallon is hitting household budgets. A print below 95 (vs 98.3 prior) would signal recession risk is building among consumers. ES reaction: -20 to -40 points on the print at 10:00 AM CT.
• ● VIX Still at 25.72 — Fear Zone Caution — VIX dropping from 26.95 to 25.72 is encouraging, but we remain in the fear zone (above 25). Options markets still price roughly 1.6% daily SPY swings. Use tighter-than-normal stops. A VIX spike back above 27 signals the overnight optimism is evaporating.

Session Action Plan

6:00–7:28 AM CT / 7:00–8:28 AM ET Pre-Market Watch	Assess the Overnight Setup Check ES vs. the 6,650 pivot. Check Brent crude — below $97 confirms the peace-plan trade is holding. Check VIX: above 27.00 means the overnight optimism is fading. Check the 10-yr yield: below 4.35% = favorable for continued rally. No new positions until after 7:30 AM CT data unless a major Iran headline breaks first. ▲ ES holds 6,640+ and crude below $98   ▼ ES drops below 6,634 (overnight low) and crude above $100
7:28–7:35 AM CT / 8:28–8:35 AM ET Durable Goods Data	Durable Goods Orders + Core (ex-Aircraft) Prior headline: +3.1%. Core ex-aircraft prior: +0.1%. Wait for the initial 30–60 second spike to complete before entering. A headline beat (above +2%) with core above +0.3% = confirms manufacturing resilience = long setup targeting 6,680–6,700. A headline miss with negative core = manufacturing cracking = short setup or exit longs targeting 6,620–6,634. ▲ Core Durable Goods above 0.3% → target 6,680–6,700   ▼ Core Durable Goods below 0% → target 6,620–6,634
7:35–9:28 AM CT / 8:35–10:28 AM ET CME Open + Price Discovery	Regular Session Opens — Fade or Follow? After the CME open at 8:30 AM CT (9:30 AM ET), watch whether institutions use the overnight gap-up as a selling opportunity or add to longs. Holding above 6,640 for 15+ minutes after the open = real buying interest. Fading back below 6,620 on volume = institutions selling into strength. This is the critical confirmation window. ▲ ES holds 6,640 for 15+ min post-open → target 6,680+   ▼ ES fades below 6,620 on volume → target 6,606–6,620
10:00 AM CT / 11:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence	Conference Board Consumer Confidence + New Home Sales Consumer Confidence (March, prior 98.3) is the bigger mover. A print above 100 extends the morning rally — ES targets 6,700–6,720. A print below 95 signals consumer stress from $3.98/gallon gas and war anxiety — ES pulls back to 6,620–6,634. New Home Sales (prior 657K) is secondary — a miss below 620K adds mild pressure. ▲ Confidence above 100 → ES target 6,700–6,720   ▼ Confidence below 95 → ES target 6,620–6,634
All Day Iran Headline Watch	Iran Peace Plan — Ongoing Headline Risk The 15-point plan is in play all day. Any official Iranian government statement, Trump tweet on negotiations, China/Pakistan diplomatic update, or Hormuz shipping news moves oil 3–6% and ES follows within 30–90 seconds. Keep a news feed open and use mental stops: a 2% Brent spike back above $100 = reduce long exposure immediately. ▲ Iran signals willingness to talk → ES +40 to +70 pts   ▼ Iran Supreme Leader rejects plan / new military action → ES -50 to -90 pts
2:00–2:30 PM CT / 3:00–3:30 PM ET Power Hour	Session Close — Level to Watch A daily close above 6,660 would be the highest ES close in over a week — bullish momentum signal for Thursday. A close above 6,681 (overnight high) = breakout, targeting the 6,700–6,720 zone by end of week. A close below 6,634 (overnight low) suggests the peace plan rally failed and resets the bias to neutral for Thursday. ▲ Close above 6,681 → Thursday target 6,700–6,720   ▼ Close below 6,634 → Thursday target 6,600–6,620

ES Key Levels

6,720–6,750	50-day moving average zone — the major technical ceiling; a close above here signals trend reversal
6,700	Round-number psychological resistance — institutional selling expected near this level
6,681.50	Overnight session high — first real ceiling on today’s session; prior rejection point
6,659.50 — CURRENT	Pre-market reference level as of 6:10 AM PT — +53.50 pts from Tuesday’s close of 6,606
6,634.75	Overnight session low — first floor below current price; holds here = trend intact
6,606–6,610	Tuesday’s regular session close — prior settlement; a key reset level if overnight gains evaporate
6,565–6,582	Multi-day low cluster from last week — major demand zone; significant buyer concentration

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NQ — NASDAQ 100 Futures

Overnight Action

NQ futures opened Wednesday’s Globex session near Tuesday’s close of 24,213.75, then rallied sharply through Asian hours. The contract reached an overnight high of 24,538.50 before pulling back slightly to trade near 24,443 — a gain of approximately 229 points (+0.95%) from the prior session close. NQ’s overnight move was driven by two reinforcing factors: the same Iran peace plan catalyst that lifted ES (oil falling lowers energy costs for data centers); and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.33% from 4.39% — a significant relief for growth and technology stocks whose valuations are highly sensitive to interest rates. Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei surged +2.87% overnight, confirming the global risk-on move in growth names. NQ is currently approximately 7.4% below its all-time high of 26,399 — still approaching but not yet at the official -10% correction level of 23,759. The overnight range of 24,320.50 to 24,538.50 is a 218-point spread. A key caution: Iran rejected the peace plan overnight and Tuesday session saw NQ fall -0.77%, driven in part by Salesforce (-6.2%) on Anthropic competition concerns. Tech-specific negative catalysts can drag NQ independent of the geopolitical backdrop.

3 Key Session Themes

1. 1. Yield Relief — NQ’s Best Friend Today
   The 10-yr yield dropping from 4.39% to 4.33% is the single most important NQ driver overnight. High-growth tech stocks (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet) all get more attractive when yields fall — investors can justify paying more for future earnings. If the yield holds below 4.35% through today’s session, NQ has room to run toward 24,700+. A yield reversal back above 4.40% = NQ reverses sharply.
2. 2. AI and Data Center Cost Relief — Energy Price Drop
   Brent crude dropping 4–7% overnight directly lowers the energy cost projections for AI data centers operated by NVDA, MSFT (Azure), GOOGL (Cloud), and AMZN (AWS). These four names represent roughly 25–30% of QQQ’s weighting. Lower energy costs = better margins = higher earnings estimates = NQ bull fuel. Monitor whether these names open in line with the overnight futures gain or underperform.
3. 3. Salesforce Overhang — Sector Rotation Still a Risk
   Salesforce dropped -6.2% on Tuesday on concerns about Anthropic’s Claude AI competitive pressure on CRM software. AI disruption is a double-edged sword for NQ: helpful for hardware (NVDA) but threatening for software-as-a-service (Salesforce, ServiceNow, Workday). Watch CRM and software names at the open; if they sell off again, NQ can lag ES even in a positive tape.

Key Risks — NQ Specific

• ● Iran Rejection of Peace Plan Hardens — Iran’s military already rejected the plan overnight. If the Supreme Leader issues a formal, definitive rejection, oil spikes and yields follow. NQ — being 1.3–1.5x more volatile than ES — faces 250–400 point downside from current levels back toward 24,000–24,100.
• ● Durable Goods Miss + Yield Reversal — A weak core Durable Goods print signals manufacturing weakness under the weight of high energy costs. If this also causes bond buyers to sell (yield rising), NQ gets hit from two angles: fundamental deterioration AND discount rate expansion. NQ target on this scenario: 24,100–24,213.
• ● Consumer Confidence Below 95 — Soft Spending Ahead — The NASDAQ 100 is heavily weighted toward consumer-facing tech (Google ads, Meta ads, Amazon e-commerce). A confidence reading below 95 signals consumers are pulling back — bearish for advertising revenue and e-commerce outlook. NQ target: -150 to -200 points on a bad print.
• ● Software/AI Disruption Headlines — Salesforce’s -6.2% Tuesday move shows how quickly a single AI competition story can hammer an NQ constituent. ServiceNow, Workday, or other major software names facing similar competitive threats can drag NQ 100–200 pts independent of the macro tape.

NQ Session Action Plan

6:00–7:28 AM CT / 7:00–8:28 AM ET Pre-Market Watch	Check NQ vs 24,420 and 10-Yr Yield NQ above 24,420 = bullish lean, overnight gap holding. NQ below 24,320 (overnight low) = bears challenging the peace-plan move. 10-yr yield below 4.35% = favorable for NQ. Brent below $97 = energy cost relief intact. Check pre-market prices for NVDA and AAPL — these two names alone can set NQ’s directional tone. ▲ NQ holds 24,420+; 10-yr yield below 4.35%; NVDA/AAPL up pre-market   ▼ NQ below 24,320; 10-yr yield above 4.37%; Brent above $100
7:28–7:40 AM CT / 8:28–8:40 AM ET Durable Goods Data	Durable Goods — Yield and NQ Reaction Watch the immediate 10-yr yield move after the print — NQ’s reaction follows the yield. A strong print (core above +0.3%) that does not spike yields = NQ positive. A weak print (core below 0%) = NQ neutral to negative. The worst outcome: weak headline but yields rise anyway (stagflation read) = NQ immediately target 24,100–24,213. ▲ Beat + yields stable or falling → NQ target 24,550–24,700   ▼ Miss + yields spike → NQ target 24,100–24,213
8:28–9:45 AM CT / 9:28–10:45 AM ET CME Open + Mega-Cap Watch	Regular Session Opens — Watch the Big 5 At the regular session open (8:30 AM CT / 9:30 AM ET), watch AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN collectively. If the top 5 NQ components open green and hold for 10–15 minutes, NQ has legs to 24,600–24,700. If they gap up but immediately reverse on selling, NQ is being distributed — fade rallies and target 24,213–24,320. ▲ Big-5 hold green 15+ min post-open → NQ 24,600–24,700   ▼ Big-5 reverse on selling → NQ distributed; target 24,213–24,320
10:00 AM CT / 11:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence	Conference Board Consumer Confidence Prior reading: 98.3. NQ is sensitive to consumer sentiment because advertising revenue (GOOGL, META) and e-commerce (AMZN) depend on consumer spending health. Above 100 = NQ targets 24,700–24,800. Below 95 = NQ likely gives back 150–200 points from whatever level it holds at 10:00 AM CT. ▲ Confidence above 100 → NQ target 24,700–24,800   ▼ Confidence below 95 → NQ target 24,100–24,213
All Day Headline + Software Watch	Iran News + AI/Software Disruption Headlines Two distinct headline categories matter for NQ: (1) Iran/oil/yield developments that move the broad tape, and (2) AI competition stories targeting specific NQ constituents (Salesforce-type situations). Keep a news alert on major NQ components. An earnings warning or analyst downgrade on a top-10 NQ constituent can generate 50–150 point NQ moves independent of the macro tape. ▲ Iran progress + tech names hold → NQ +200 to +300 pts from open   ▼ Iran sours + mega-cap selling → NQ -300 to -450 pts
2:00–2:30 PM CT / 3:00–3:30 PM ET Power Hour	NQ Session Close — Level to Watch A daily NQ close above 24,500 would be a multi-week high — significant bullish development. A close above 24,538 (overnight high) = breakout, targets 24,700–25,000 zone by end of week. A close below 24,213 (Tuesday’s regular close) = the peace-plan rally fully gave back, resets to bearish bias. ▲ Close above 24,538 → Thursday target 24,700–25,000   ▼ Close below 24,213 → Thursday target 24,000–24,100

NQ Key Levels

26,399	All-time high — NQ is currently 7.4% below this level; a return here requires full geopolitical resolution
25,000	Major psychological resistance — round number where institutional selling is likely heavy
24,538.50	Overnight session high — first real ceiling on today’s session; a breakout here opens 24,700+
24,443.25 — CURRENT	Pre-market reference as of 6:10 AM PT — +229.50 pts from Tuesday’s close of 24,213.75
24,320.50	Overnight session low — immediate floor; a break here opens toward Tuesday’s close
24,200–24,213	Tuesday regular session close — prior settlement; losing this level = overnight gains fully reversed
24,000	Major psychological floor — heavy buyer concentration expected near this round number
23,759	Formal -10% correction level from the ATH of 26,399 — institutional de-risking triggers activate here

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Market News

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Scheduled Economic Events

Time (CT)	Time (ET)	Impact	Event	Period	Previous	Forecast
7:30 AM	8:30 AM		Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	FEB	+3.1%	Est. -1.5%
7:30 AM	8:30 AM		Core Durable Goods (ex-Aircraft)	FEB	+0.1%	Est. +0.2%
All Day	All Day		Iran 15-Point Peace Plan — Response Window	Ongoing	Rejected (military)	Talks possible
10:00 AM	11:00 AM		New Home Sales	FEB	657K	Est. 638K
10:00 AM	11:00 AM		Consumer Confidence — Conference Board	MAR	98.3	Est. 94.0
6:00 PM	7:00 PM		Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Speech	—	—	Watch for rate cut guidance

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Risk Calendar — ES & NQ Scenarios

Time (CT)	Event	Bullish Outcome	Bearish Outcome	ES Move	NQ Move
7:30 AM CT / 8:30 AM ET	Durable Goods Orders + Core	Headline above -0.5%; Core above +0.3% — ES reclaims 6,680–6,700, NQ targets 24,550–24,650.	Headline below -2.0%; Core negative — ES pulls back to 6,614–6,634, NQ target 24,268–24,343.	±20–35 pts	±60–175 pts
All Day	Iran Peace Plan Response	Iran signals willingness to negotiate, Brent crude falls below $95 — ES +40–70 pts to 6,700–6,729, NQ +150–280 pts to 24,593–24,721.	Supreme Leader rejects; new military action; Brent spikes above $103 — ES -50–90 pts to 6,569–6,609, NQ -200–380 pts to 24,063–24,243.	±50–90 pts	±200–380 pts
10:00 AM CT / 11:00 AM ET	Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)	Reading above 100 — soft-landing signal; ES +15–30 pts from 10AM level, NQ +60–120 pts.	Reading below 94 — gas at $3.98 cracking confidence; ES -20–40 pts from 10AM level, NQ -80–160 pts.	±15–40 pts	±60–160 pts
6:00 PM CT / 7:00 PM ET	Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Speech	Jefferson signals openness to rate cut if oil falls; yields fall further — ES +15–25 after-hours, NQ +60–100.	Jefferson reaffirms hawkish hold; inflation risks from oil still elevated — ES -10–20 after-hours, NQ -40–80.	±10–25 pts	±40–100 pts

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