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ES — S&P 500 Futures

Overnight Action

ES futures opened Sunday night around 6,635 and drifted lower through the overnight session, hitting a low of 6,590 before stabilizing near 6,600. The primary driver was a massive 9% crash in crude oil after Trump signaled consideration of reducing U.S. military operations near Iran.

3 Key Session Themes

1. 1. Oil Whiplash Risk
   Crude crashed 9% Monday. Any Iran headline moves oil and ES follows immediately. Watch for updates at CME open (8:30 AM CT).
2. 2. Macro Data at 8:30 AM CT
   Retail Sales + Labor Productivity data drop at the exact CME open. A beat gives bulls a window; a miss amplifies the slowdown narrative.
3. 3. Fed On-Hold Overhang
   Only one 25bp cut priced for all of 2026. No near-term rescue from the Fed. Oil-driven inflation keeps Powell hawkish.

Key Risks

• ● Geopolitical Reversal — New Iran strikes or Hormuz blockade headlines spike oil and crush ES 50–100 pts.
• ● Weak Retail Sales — A miss confirms consumer slowdown — adds recessionary fear to an already nervous tape.
• ● VIX Remains Elevated — VIX at 26 = options pricing ~1.7% daily swings on SPY.
• ● 4-Week Losing Streak Psychology — Institutions using any bounce to reduce exposure. Sell-the-rip caps upside rallies.

Session Action Plan

6:00 AM PT Pre-Market	Read the Overnight Tape Check ES vs 6,600 pivot. Check crude direction. ES above 6,610 = bullish lean. Below 6,590 = bears in control. ▲ ES above 6,610   ▼ ES below 6,590
8:30 AM CT CME Open + Data	Retail Sales + Labor Productivity Do not enter trades 2 minutes before this print. Expect a sharp spike within 30-60 seconds. ▲ Beat → ES 6,640–6,660   ▼ Miss → ES 6,565–6,580
9:45 AM CT PMI Data	Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI Forecast: Mfg 51.0, Services 51.0. Below 50 = contraction signal. ▲ Above 52 → adds to bounce   ▼ Below 50 → renewed selling
All Day Headline Watch	Iran War Headlines The overriding variable. Ceasefire = ES +50–80+. Escalation = ES -50–100+. ▲ Ceasefire → major rally   ▼ Escalation → risk-off
2:00 PM CT Power Hour	Final Hour Decision Close above 6,610 = institutional accumulation. Close below 6,590 = bears maintain control. ▲ Close >6,610 → Tuesday long   ▼ Close <6,590 → bearish continuation

ES Key Levels

6,700+	Major resistance — 50-day moving average zone
6,652	Monday’s intraday high — first ceiling on any bounce
6,635	Friday close / Sunday Globex open — pivot level
6,600 ▶ CURRENT	Overnight hold zone — pre-market reference level
6,590	Overnight session low — immediate support floor
6,570–6,580	Friday close equivalent — major support
6,530–6,550	Multi-week demand zone — critical buyer concentration

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NQ — NASDAQ 100 Futures

Overnight Action

NQ futures opened Sunday night near 24,417 and drifted lower to a low of 24,222, settling around 24,246 — a drop of about 162–170 points. The NASDAQ 100 is now approximately 9.6% below its all-time high of 26,399, approaching official correction territory. Tech stocks face dual headwinds: oil-driven inflation and the Fed’s hawkish hold.

3 Key Session Themes

1. 1. Rate Sensitivity
   NQ is disproportionately hurt by higher-for-longer rates. With just 1 cut priced for 2026, growth/tech stocks face continued valuation pressure.
2. 2. Oil as an Input Cost
   Big tech names (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL) have significant data center energy costs. Sustained high oil = higher operating costs for AI infrastructure = margin pressure.
3. 3. Sector Rotation
   Money rotating out of tech/growth (NQ) and into energy/value. This is the structural headwind for NQ vs. ES.

Key Risks — NQ Specific

• ● Rate Spike — Hot Retail Sales data could send 10-yr yields higher — a direct hit to tech valuations. NQ could drop 200–300 pts.
• ● Mega-Cap Guidance Risk — Any pre-announcement from top-10 NQ constituents (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, META) moves the index hard.
• ● AI Spending Scrutiny — Energy costs and ROI questions around AI data centers. Negative analyst notes on NVDA or cloud capex get amplified.
• ● 9.6% Below ATH Psychology — Fund managers face redemption pressure at near-correction levels. Selling can become self-reinforcing.

NQ Session Action Plan

6:00 AM PT Pre-Market	Check NQ vs 24,300 Pivot NQ above 24,300 = bullish lean. Below 24,222 (overnight low) = bears testing lower support. ▲ NQ above 24,300   ▼ NQ below 24,222
8:30 AM CT CME Open	Retail Sales + Rate Reaction NQ is hypersensitive to both the data AND the 10-yr yield reaction. Watch if yields fall on a miss — NQ may rally despite bad data. ▲ Beat + yields flat → NQ 24,450–24,550   ▼ Miss + yields up → NQ 24,100–24,200
9:45 AM CT PMI Data	Services PMI Matters Most for NQ Services PMI below 50 would disproportionately hit NQ constituents (cloud, SaaS, ad-tech). ▲ Services >52 → NQ +100–150 pts   ▼ Services <50 → NQ -150–250 pts
All Day Yield Watch	10-Year Yield is NQ’s Shadow Yield rising = NQ selling. Yield falling = NQ buying. Near-perfect inverse correlation. ▲ ^TNX below 4.25% → NQ tailwinds   ▼ ^TNX above 4.40% → NQ headwinds
2:00 PM CT Power Hour	NQ Close Level Decision Close above 24,400 = buyers stepping in. Close below 24,200 = correction deepening, next target 24,000. ▲ Close >24,400 → Tuesday long NQ   ▼ Close <24,200 → target 24,000

NQ Key Levels

26,399	All-time high — 9.6% above current price
25,000	Round number psychological resistance
24,489	Monday’s intraday high — first ceiling
24,417	Sunday Globex open / pivot level
24,246 ▶ CURRENT	Overnight level — pre-market reference
24,222	Overnight session low — immediate support
24,000	Psychological round number — major buyer area
23,600–23,800	Multi-week demand zone — critical support

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Market News

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Scheduled Economic Events

Time (CT)	Time (ET)	Impact	Event	Period	Previous	Forecast
8:30 AM	9:30 AM		Retail Sales (M-o-M)	JAN	0.0%	—
8:30 AM	9:30 AM		Labor Productivity (Q-o-Q)	Q4 Final	4.9%	—
9:45 AM	10:45 AM		S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI	MAR Prelim	51.6	51.0
9:45 AM	10:45 AM		S&P Global Flash Services PMI	MAR Prelim	51.7%	51.0%
10:00 AM	11:00 AM		Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	MAR	-10	-5

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Risk Calendar — ES & NQ Scenarios

Time (CT)	Event	Bullish Outcome	Bearish Outcome	ES Move	NQ Move
8:30 AM	Retail Sales	Beat (>+0.3%): ES +20–30 pts. NQ +80–120 pts.	Miss (<0%): ES -20–35 pts. NQ -100–150 pts.	±20–35 pts	±80–150 pts
9:45 AM	Flash PMI (Mfg+Services)	Both >52: ES +15–25. NQ +80–120.	Either <50: ES -25–40. NQ -150–250.	±15–40 pts	±80–250 pts
All Day	Iran War Headlines	Ceasefire: ES +50–80+. NQ +200–400+.	Escalation: ES -50–100+. NQ -300–500+.	±50–100+ pts	±200–500+ pts

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